A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have won 27 of 28 series. The only exception was in 1942 when the Toronto Maple Leafs rallied to defeat the Detroit Red Wings. Of those 28 series, 20 ended in sweeps. The Panthers are trying to achieve a sweep in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games in 1998.
Even if the Oilers manage to send the series back to South Florida with a Game 4 win, 25 of those 28 series have ended in no more than five games. Despite the long odds, the Oilers still believe they can make a comeback.
Oilers’ Current Struggles
The Oilers are now 0-5-0 against the Panthers this season. Edmonton showed some fight in the third period on Thursday, getting gritty goals from Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod, cutting the Panthers' lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers were down 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, in a must-win game, against a team with a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
The Oilers’ undoing came during an embarrassing 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three goals. Edmonton had just tied the game at 1-1 on a Warren Foegele breakaway goal, but a turnover by Skinner allowed forward Eetu Luostarinen to find Vladimir Tarasenko, making it 2-1 and deflating the crowd at 9:12. By 13:57, it was 3-1, as solid forechecking by Matthew Tkachuk forced a Darnell Nurse turnover that Sam Bennett snapped into the net for his seventh goal of the playoffs. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for Florida at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance that the Oilers allowed to start from deep inside their attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Edmonton's leading scorers during the playoffs have been uncharacteristically quiet. Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have goals, but the Oilers' top offensive names—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have not found the back of the net. These five players also run Edmonton's power play, which has been ineffective this series against Florida's penalty kill, which is 10-for-10.
Edmonton's power play had been clicking at over 37%, the best in the postseason. Although McDavid has recorded assists on three of the Oilers' four goals this series, the others have yet to register a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
McDavid is on pace to become only the second player since 1967-68 to have a point on at least half of his team's playoff goals. The only other player to achieve this was Wayne Gretzky, also for the Oilers, in 1988.
Taking Responsibility
The Oilers have been introspective about their performance. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," said Draisaitl.
"We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of," Draisaitl added.
Goalie Stuart Skinner echoed the sentiment: "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Coach Kris Knoblauch remains hopeful. "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just [saying], 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room," he said. "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Reflecting on the collapse, Skinner noted, "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
In these challenging moments, Draisaitl underscores the need for perseverance: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."