The Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates are set for an intriguing matchup on Friday night at PNC Park, with the first pitch slated for 6:40 PM ET. The Phillies enter the contest as the favorites, sitting on a money line of -145, but recent developments suggest that the Pittsburgh Pirates could pose a significant challenge.
Phillies' Strong Season So Far
Philadelphia arrives with an impressive 62-34 overall record, leading the NL East by 8.5 games over the Braves. This season, the Phillies have excelled both at home (37-16) and on the road (25-18), although they have struggled somewhat recently, standing at 2-3 in their last five road games. Their performance against the runline in away games matches this trend, also showing a 2-3 record in their past five endeavors. Notably, the team is coming off a defeat in a two-game road series against the Athletics.
Aaron Nola Takes the Mound
Friday's game will see Aaron Nola pitching for the Phillies. Nola boasts a solid season record of 11-4 with an ERA of 3.38. He has demonstrated consistency with 14 quality starts and an average of 8.72 strikeouts per nine innings. In his most recent outing, Nola pitched six innings, allowing one earned run while striking out nine batters. His performance has been key to the Phillies’ recent success, having won three of his last four starts.
Offensive Prowess
Offensively, the Phillies have been robust, averaging 5 runs per game and holding a collective batting average of .259. They've also shown power at the plate, having hit the sixth-most home runs in the league. Bryce Harper has been a standout performer, with a .301 batting average, 21 home runs, and 61 RBIs. Alec Bohm is currently enjoying a five-game hitting streak, adding to his .295 batting average.
Pirates’ Resurgence
The Pirates, with a 48-48 record and currently third in the NL Central, have been showing signs of resurgence. They are riding a four-game win streak, closing out their series against the White Sox with three consecutive victories. Despite trailing the Brewers by 6.5 games, the Pirates have found a rhythm, winning four out of their last five home games.
Underestimated Underdogs
Interestingly, the Pirates have an 8-2 straight-up record when playing as underdogs over their last ten games and maintain a runline record of 38-18 as underdogs. Martín Pérez, who will be pitching for the Pirates, has faced difficulties this season, evidenced by his 1-5 record and 5.16 ERA. In his last start against the Brewers, Pérez offered a shaky performance, giving up five earned runs in just 4 2/3 innings.
Key Players for the Pirates
Where hitting is concerned, Bryan Reynolds has been a consistent contributor, holding a .284 batting average with 18 home runs. Over his last seven games, Reynolds is hitting at a .321 clip with two home runs, showcasing his current form. Additionally, Ke’Bryan Hayes is on a four-game hitting streak, further solidifying the Pirates' offensive capabilities.
The Betting Line
The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Phillies have a track record of 14-11-1 when the over/under line is set at this mark, while the Pirates hold a 10-12 record under the same conditions. Road and home runline records provide additional context, with the Phillies standing at 23-20 on the road and the Pirates at 23-23 at home.
While the Phillies are favored, the expert prediction leans slightly towards the Pirates, suggesting a 6-5 victory for Pittsburgh. With both sides having distinct strengths and vulnerabilities, Friday night's matchup promises to be an enthralling contest for baseball fans.