At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins' recent struggles continued, as they suffered a heartbreaking 4-3 loss to the Cleveland Guardians. Despite holding a three-run lead, Griffin Jax surrendered a game-deciding two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth, encapsulating the woes of a team that has now lost 18 of their last 27 games.
The defeat leaves the Twins precariously clinging to the third AL wild-card spot, with their lead having shrunk to just 1.5 games. Given their current trajectory, the organization and its fans are feeling the pressure. As of September 5, FanGraphs estimated the Twins' postseason odds at a robust 95.4%. However, recent performances have seen those odds dwindle to a still-solid, yet concerning, 76.4%.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow," lamented pitcher Pablo López.
One of the Twins' most glaring issues has been their offensive inconsistency. In 12 of their last 27 games, they've failed to score more than three runs. During this stretch, the team is batting .236, with an on-base percentage of .296 and a slugging percentage of .381. When the bases are empty, they’re hitting just .272, ranking them among the worst in the league in such scenarios.
Manager Rocco Baldelli spoke candidly about the state of the team's offense, stating, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
A Struggling Bullpen and Exhausted Rotation
The bullpen, which had been a relative strength earlier in the season with a 3.84 ERA and a tenth-place ranking in win probability added (plus-3.41) over the first 123 games, has significantly faltered. Over the last 27 games, the bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added.
Griffin Jax put it bluntly: "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
Exacerbating the bullpen's issues is the rest of the rotation, which has posted a 6.07 ERA during the same 27-game period, averaging only 4.38 innings per start. Fatigue is clearly becoming a factor, as the Twins have played 17 games in the last 18 days.
The Twins' late-game woes have been particularly painful. They had the lead in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions. Such close calls have made recent defeats even more excruciating for a team desperately trying to secure a playoff berth.
Roster Moves and Injuries
In an attempt to bolster their pitching staff, the Twins recently claimed lefty Cole Irvin off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin had posted a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances this season.
Explaining the move, executive Derek Falvey commented, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
On a brighter note, Max Kepler is expected to return, and the Twins have enjoyed some recent success from Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, who are a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month.
An Uphill Battle
The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are both just two games behind the Twins in the standings, intensifying the pressure. Although the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, the Tigers' recent surge — going 23-10 in their last 33 games — is cause for concern.
"We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this," said Baldelli, encapsulating the urgency and uncertainty that currently defines the Twins' season.
Only time will tell if the Twins can overcome their recent struggles and secure a spot in the playoffs, but one thing remains clear: their margin for error has never been slimmer.